How Canadians say they would vote if a federal election were held today, tracked since the April 28, 2025 election. No election is underway, so this page follows the parties, not candidates. Every figure links to its source.
Each dot is one published poll. Lines are the polling average as it stood each week. The left edge is the 2025 election result.
Regional samples are smaller than the national sample, so each regional figure has a wider margin of error (roughly ±4 to ±8 points). The territories are not reported separately in national polls.
343 seats. A party needs 172 for a majority of all seats.
Every national federal voting-intention poll published since the 2025 election. "Weight" is each poll's share of today's average; polls outside the 30-day window, and earlier releases from a rolling tracker, have no weight.
There are no seat projections on this page. Between elections, national vote shares say little about any one riding, and a projection made years before a vote would mostly reflect the model's assumptions.
Polls measure stated intention among people who answer surveys, weighted to match the population. They are not forecasts. In the 2025 election the final polls together underestimated the Conservative share by about 2 points and overestimated the NDP by about 1.7. The next fixed election date under the Canada Elections Act is October 15, 2029; an election can be called earlier.
A scheduled check looks for newly published national polls. New polls are added to the table and marked "New", and the average and trend recalculate from them. Regional figures and House standings are checked by hand and dated where shown. Data last checked .